By Rick Oltman, January 14, 2019
President Trump visited McAllen, Texas, on Thursday, right on the U.S. – Mexico border, to discuss border security with the officials there, and he also briefed the press.
Border Patrol Acting Sector Chief Raul Ortiz briefed the President, and told Sean Hannity of FOX News later, “We have about 55 miles of fencing already in this sector, and it’s on our east side. It accounts for about 6 percent of my traffic. On my west side where I have very little fencing and very little technology, it accounts for 94 percent of my traffic.” Walls work. Case closed.
Where to build the wall will be the next discussion, once the money is allocated for its construction. And that construction should begin in areas that divide every border town and city on U.S. – Mexico border.
With hundreds of thousands of people attempting to cross each year, one can generally predict where most of the traffic will try to cross.
Thus far, for the first two months in FY2019, (October and November) the U.S. Border Patrol apprehended 102,857 people attempting illegal entry on the southern border. Of course, that number is apprehensions and not those who made it into the country. The old metric, called “the got-away rate,” used to be that on a good day, the border patrol caught one in five, on a bad day, one in seven.
Multiply the two months of apprehensions: 102,857 x 4 (presuming every day was a good day), and it is possible that 411,428 illegal aliens made it into our country in just two months. If you multiply those two months of apprehensions of 102,857 x 6, you get a projection of 617,142 apprehensions for the FY ending September 30.
Regardless of the “got-away rate,” there will be hundreds of thousands of people moving toward our southern border in the coming months. And this helps to determine where to build the wall.
As you look at a map of the southern border, pay attention to all the cities and towns on both sides, U.S. and Mexico. The cities on the Mexican side are the staging areas for the smuggling cartels, they provide the essential infrastructure. Hundreds of thousands of people need food, water, shoes, clothes, and a place to shelter before they attempt their illegal border crossing. The cartels need coyotes, cell phone coverage, transport vehicles, fuel, etc., everything required to move hundreds of thousands of people to our southern border.
The 55 miles of fence to Chief Ortiz’s East would go all the way to Brownsville, Texas. There are three large Mexican cities along the fenced route: Matamoros, Ciudad Rio Bravo and Remosa, and dozens of small Mexican towns, all prepared and willing to provide whatever is needed to facilitate the smuggling … at a price, of course.
The bigger cities should be the target. In New Mexico, the Columbus/Palomas corridor is the preferred northerly route west of El Paso/Juarez. Several years ago, I sat in a Palomas, Mexico, bus station with a retired border patrol agent who spoke fluent Spanish. In a short period of time, we saw dozens of people get off the bus, sit on a bench, give cash money to the person who met them, and eavesdropped on the instructions on how to prepare, where to go and whom to meet for that night’s attempted illegal border crossing.
In Arizona, the initial focus should be on Douglas/Agua Prieta, Naco/Naco, Nogales/Nogales, the Tohono Odom Indian Reservation and from Yuma south to San Luis Rio Colorado, where the Colorado River enters Mexico.
In California: Calexico/Mexicali, Otay Mesa, about a mile from the Tijuana International Airport (where many disembark from Asia, and other origins, to attempt illegal entry.)
San Diego/Tijuana, of course. There are already many miles of wall/fence.
This is just the start, of course. But by targeting the obvious routes, driving the foot traffic into the desert will discourage some and make it easier for the border patrol to apprehend those who do try, which is in itself another discouragement.
All these border patrol sectors can augment the fence/wall with ground sensors, drones, observation towers, helicopter surveillance, foot, horses, and vehicle patrols.
It can be done. It is long overdue, but it appears that finally we are going to get the border security that was promised, but never delivered, in exchange for the 1986 IRCA amnesty.
And the all-important deterrent message, at long last, is being sent.
You have enemies? Good. That means you’ve stood up for something, sometime in your life. [Winston Churchill.]
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