By Rick Oltman, August 9,2016
According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s population clock, the current population of the United States is approaching 325 million people. One presumes that it includes the “official” current estimate of illegal aliens of 11 million. Of course, that number is ridiculously low if you calculate the U.S. Border Patrol’s apprehension for the last 30 years, from 1985-2015. Over that thirty year period, the Border Patrol apprehended 31,373,128 illegal aliens along the southern border, alone. That does not include those apprehended on the East Coast coming from Cuba, the Bahamas, Haiti, Jamaica or the other Caribbean Islands. It doesn’t include numbers from the northern border with Canada and it doesn’t include those who overstayed their visas, thereby becoming illegal aliens. (“Visa overstays” are often, incorrectly, referred to as 40% of all illegal aliens. Nobody really knows, because the U.S. still doesn’t keep track of those who have entered legally on a visa. But, that percentage isn’t close.)
For years, the Border Patrol (BP) officially used to report the “gotaway” rate, those who “got away” from apprehension. For decades, it was felt that on a “good day,” the Border Patrol caught one in five illegal aliens, on a “bad day,” the number was one in seven. That means that if every single day since 1985 was a “good day,” then for every one they caught, four “got away.”
4 x 31,373,128 = 125,492,512 illegal border crossings in the past 30 years. And, that’s just across the southern border. But now, no more “gotaway rate.”
Retired Congressman Tom Tancredo, a good friend and ally in our fight to get our immigration laws enforced during the last two years of the Clinton Administration and all of the Bush Administration, had a good piece on Breitbart, August 6, titled, “Border Patrol to Illegals: Don’t Get Caught.”
“… Obama’s Border Patrol has officially abandoned the use of the “Gotaway” number in weekly and quarterly reports of apprehensions. For decades, the Border Patrol routinely compiled and reported the Gotaway number as a supplement to the number of actual apprehensions.
- Border Patrol agents knew and openly admitted that the number of illegal border crossers apprehended was only a fraction of the number of border jumpers.
- Veterans and CBP retirees remember when that Gotaway number was three to four times the official apprehension number.
- The nonpartisan Congressional Research Service recently calculated the Gotaway number to be at least 1.5. Translated, that means the number of successful illegal entries is at least 150 percent above the number apprehended by the Border Patrol.”
Now, there is absolutely no reason to believe any number coming out of the federal government. The Congressional Research Service number of 1.5 gotaways is laughable.
And, the number of illegal aliens in the country isn’t 125 million. There were multiple crossings by many people for years. I’ve heard of Border Patrol agents catching the same guy 6 or 8 times back in the 80s and 90s. They didn’t finger print the illegals they caught for many years. They didn’t have computers back then, and when they finally did get computers, they weren’t linked together for several more years. The various sectors couldn’t share the names, pictures and descriptions of those caught. After about half a dozen arrests, followed by detention time, the illegal would just shift to another sector where the agents wouldn’t know him by sight. If he was coming through at El Paso, Texas, or El Centro, California, he would just move over a couple hundred miles and come across in the Tucson sector.
While the number of illegal aliens in the country isn’t 125 million, it isn’t the laughable 11 million number, either. That estimate is absolutely not credible. Retired sector chiefs have opined that it could be 40 million, or higher. One recently said it could be as high as 50 million. But, he added, “they” (the federal government) don’t know, and they don’t want to know.
And if the 40-50 million estimate is close to the real number, that makes the population of the United States closer to 360-370 million, without even adding in the “visa overstays” or those sneaking in from Canada or the Caribbean.
At the current rate of legal and illegal immigration into the United States, we will have a population of half a billion people by mid-century, just 34 years from now. Think of what that means for your children and grandchildren.
Click on the above links and see the numbers for yourself. The Border Patrol was apprehending over 1 million illegals a year on average right up to 2009. Print out the page on Border Patrol apprehensions. You might find the numbers and estimates useful in any current, or near future discussions with friends and acquaintances, or co-workers about border security, amnesty, border walls, that sort of thing. Now you will be ready when the topic of illegal immigration comes up in casual conversation.
Editor’s Note: Back on October 3, 2007, The Social Contract and Californians for Population Stabilization released a special report at The National Press Club on how illegal alien numbers are undercounted. Segments of the conference can be viewed here. For complete articles on the topic, see the Summer 2007 issue of The Social Contract.