By Allan Wall, October 21, 2021
The congressional mid-term elections are coming up soon, scheduled for November of 2022.
These midterm elections are very important as they will form the Congress for the second half of Biden’s term.
This Congress will either support or impede the policies of the administration.
A recent Grinnell College National Poll contains information that should be of interest to politicians, prospective politicians, and campaign advisers regarding issues that may be critical in the 2022 midterm elections.
The October 2021 Grinnell College National Poll was conducted by Selzer & Company from October 13 to 17.
The poll surveyed by telephone “915 U.S. adults ages 18 and over,” was “weighted by sex, age and race,” and has a margin of error of ±3.2 percentage points.
The first survey question asks those surveyed if they approve or disapprove of Biden’s handling of a) his overall job as president, b) COVID-19, c) the economy, and d) immigration.
The results show Biden’s administration is in trouble.
Only 37% approve of Biden’s overall presidential performance, with 50% disapproving and 12% not sure.
On the economy, 36% approve of Biden’s work and 53% disapprove, with 11% unsure.
Biden’s highest rating was on COVID-19, though he didn’t even receive a majority there, with 46% approving, 44% disapproving, and 10% unsure.
Immigration was Biden’s lowest approval rating, with only 27% approving and 58% disapproving — the highest disapproval rate — and 16% unsure.
So immigration is a weak point for the Biden administration, and could help opposition congressional candidates if they can make Biden’s disapproval stick to Democratic candidates.
Looking ahead to 2024, question #4 asks those surveyed, “If the general election were held today, and the candidates for president were [Joe Biden for the Democrats] and [Donald Trump for the Republicans], for whom would you vote—[Joe Biden], [Donald Trump], someone else, or would you not vote?”
The answer to that question was 40% for Biden and 40% for Trump, with 4% unsure, 14% for an unspecified “someone else,” and 1% planning not to vote.
On question #8, those surveyed were presented with three statements and asked if they “strongly agree, mostly agree, mostly disagree, or strongly disagree.”
One of these statements was, “There are too many immigrants coming to the U.S.”
Regarding that statement, 45% agreed (30% strongly and 15% mostly) and 50% disagreed (23% mostly and 27% strongly), with 5% unsure.
A Breitbart article by John Binder analyzed the details provided in the Grinnell poll and pointed out some interesting differences among the respondents.
From the Binder article:
“The poll, like others, shows that Americans most likely to compete against newly arrived legal immigrants for U.S. jobs are those most likely to support reducing legal immigration levels – where more than 1.2 million foreign nationals are awarded green cards annually.”
In other words, which sectors of the population want more immigration?
“For example, among Americans earning less than $50,000 a year, 52 percent agreed that the U.S. has too much immigration. Meanwhile, 57 percent of Americans earning $100,000 or more a year said they disagreed that the U.S. has too much immigration.”
Could it be that those earning less than $50,000 annually are more threatened by job competition caused by immigration?
Astute Republican candidates ought to point this out publicly, as well-off Americans are more insulated from problems caused by immigration.
How about the statement from Question #8 regarding “too many immigrants coming to the U.S.”?
“About 75 percent of Trump voters, 72 percent of Republicans, and 72 percent of self-identified conservatives said the U.S. has too much immigration, suggesting their support for reductions.”
“Similarly, rural Americans, by a 63 percent majority said the U.S. has too much immigration along with the majority of Protestants, Catholics, and Evangelicals. Cuts to immigration are the most popular among Evangelicals, in terms of religious groups, who said by a 62 percent majority that the U.S. takes too many immigrants.”
It sounds like the Republican base wants immigration reduction, not increases.
Will Republican midterm candidates take that into consideration?
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